MLB PICKS

MLB Picks for May 11

ParlayLab's methodology engine grades the Monday, May 11, 2026 MLB slate against the market. 6 games with 3 HIGH-confidence picks — moneyline, run line, total, and player props. The full pick selections are available with a free 7-day Pro trial.

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 PM ET

Rays (17-6) visit the Blue Jays (11-13). Probable starters: D. Rasmussen (2.78) for Rays, K. Gausman (3.23) for Blue Jays. Dome — no weather impact.

Pitchers

TBD. Rasmussen (2.78)

TORK. Gausman (3.23)

FanDuel lines

MLTB +108 · TOR -126

RL+1.5

TotalO/U 7

ParlayLab pick

LOW

HIGH edge

ML / RL / O-U projection

Unlock with Pro

3 qualifying picks across moneyline, run line, and totals.

AZ at Texas Rangers

8:05 PM ET

AZ (8-12) visit the Rangers (10-12). Probable starters: M. Soroka (3.27) for AZ, J. Junis (1.50) for Rangers. Dome — no weather impact.

Pitchers

AZM. Soroka (3.27)

TEXJ. Junis (1.50)

FanDuel lines

MLAZ +110 · TEX -130

RL+1.5

TotalO/U 7.5

ParlayLab pick

LOW

MED edge

ML / RL / O-U projection

Unlock with Pro

3 qualifying picks across moneyline, run line, and totals.

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

8:10 PM ET

Mariners (11-11) visit the Astros (7-14). Probable starters: G. Kirby (3.54) for Mariners, P. Lambert (3.79) for Astros. Dome — no weather impact.

Pitchers

SEAG. Kirby (3.54)

HOUP. Lambert (3.79)

FanDuel lines

MLSEA -146 · HOU +124

RL-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

ParlayLab pick

LOW

HIGH edge

ML / RL / O-U projection

Unlock with Pro

3 qualifying picks across moneyline, run line, and totals.

How ParlayLab grades the slate

Our methodology engine projects each MLB game using a market-blended model that combines team-level offense, starting-pitcher form, ballpark factors, weather (wind direction relative to center field, temperature, precipitation), bullpen fatigue, and Statcast contact quality. The engine outputs a moneyline, run-line, and total projection for every matchup and grades each pick HIGH / MED / LOW confidence based on the edge versus the FanDuel line.

Player props go through a separate Poisson projection layer per stat — hits, home runs, total bases, RBIs, runs scored, hits+runs+RBIs, and pitcher strikeouts. Each prop projection accounts for the batter-vs-pitcher history, recent rolling form, opposing pitcher ERA / WHIP / K%, ballpark-by-handedness factors, and weather. Props with strong projection-vs-line edges show up bright green; weak ones drop to orange or red.

Free users see the top picks for each market per slate plus the per-game matchup context shown above. The full pick selections, every prop on the board, the prop filter builder, and the full Game Detail + Player Detail breakdowns unlock with a Pro trial. No card charged for the first 7 days.